World Media Watch for May 31, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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1//Pakistan News Service, Pakistan--INDIAN ATTACK ON PAK LIKELY TO HARM US TROOPS (Indian External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh said on Tuesday the presence of U.S. troops in Pakistan was not an "inhibiting factor" in New Delhi's military standoff with its nuclear neighbour. India is likely to attack Pakistan full realizing that it will jeopardize the lives of U.S. Troops stations in Pakistani fighting terrorism.)

2//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--FRONTLINE SOLDIERS GEAR UP FOR WAR ("It seems as if hostilities will break out soon and we are ready for it," said the officer of the unit hunkered down close to the border in the R S Pura sector, about 25 kilometers from Jammu, the winter capital of the Indian-administered section of Kashmir...But other military officers conceded a war would serve little purpose other than to beggar the two already impoverished nations. "We need a peace offensive, not war," one officer declared, adding that politicians are prone to acting with haste on military matters and regretting the consequences at their leisure.)

3//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting, Texas, USA--GAZA SECURITY CHIEF COULD BE ARAFAT'S REPLACEMENT (The United States is looking for acceptable candidates to replace Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat, with Gaza Palestinian security chief Mohammed Dahlan reportedly near the top of the list. But positioning the more moderate Dahlan as a potential heir to Arafat could create problems for long-term peace efforts if extremist groups like Hamas feel they are being left in the cold.)

4//The Daily Yomiuri, Japan--2002 WORLD CUP / WORLD CUP A CATALYST FOR FENCE-MENDING (The South Korean government had sought a visit to Seoul by the Emperor, but the Japanese government demurred, saying the time was not yet ripe, according to government sources. Instead, Prince and Princess Takamado will attend the opening ceremony, making it the first official visit by the Japanese Imperial family to South Korea since World War II.)

5//Sydney Morning Herald, Australia--US TO CALL FOR MORE DIGGERS IN FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM (The United States will request more Australian troops for the war against terrorism, the US deputy Defence Secretary, Paul Wolfowitz, says.)

6//Pravda, Russia-- CIA AND FBI POWERLESS. SEISMOLOGISTS TO PREDICT TERRORISM ATTACKS (…a seminar of American and European seismologists is being held now in Washington. Scientists say, earthquake science may be an information source as concerning possible acts of terrorism…It is believed, seismology can define a place where weak nuclear explosions may occur, because extremists need first to test explosive devices while preparing acts of terrorism.)

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1//Pakistan News Service Updated on 2002-05-28 16:42:15
http://www.paknews.com/flash.php?id=14&date1=2002-05-28

NEW DELHI, May 28 (PNS): Indian External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh said on Tuesday the presence of U.S. troops in Pakistan was not an "inhibiting factor" in New Delhi's military standoff with its nuclear neighbour. India is likely to attack Pakistan full realizing that it will jeopardize the lives of U.S. Troops stations in Pakistani fighting terrorism.

"The physical presence of U.S. troops in certain parts of Pakistan... is not an inhibiting factor in policy determination," he said when asked if India was not taking action against Pakistan because of the presence of U.S. troops.

Singh was addressing a news conference in response to Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's televised address on Monday.

(MORE)

2//Asia Times Online May 31, 2002
http://www.atimes.com/ind-pak/DE31Df04.html

FRONTLINE SOLDIERS GEAR UP FOR WAR
By Rahul Bedi (Inter Press Service)

JAMMU - Washing down a sumptuous lunch with beer as he sat in a cool, deep bunker, the commanding officer of an Indian Army unit seemed unperturbed by the mortar and artillery shells flying in from the Pakistan border and crashing around him and his men.

"It seems as if hostilities will break out soon and we are ready for it," said the officer of the unit hunkered down close to the border in the R S Pura sector, about 25 kilometers from Jammu, the winter capital of the Indian-administered section of Kashmir.

More than 1 million Indian and Pakistani soldiers remain locked in a standoff along roughly 2,000 kilometers of their common frontier that stretches from the Siachen glacier to the burning deserts of western Rajasthan. Troops have been massing along the border since last December's suicide attack on India's parliament that New Delhi blamed on Islamabad. Tension heightened between the nuclear rivals following another attack by three gunmen on an army garrison near Jammu in which 31 people, including wives and children of soldiers, were gunned down. India again blamed the Pakistani army for launching the attack and said they were part of a "proxy war" that Islamabad has been waging against its neighbor.

"The army's morale to join battle with Pakistan is high," said the confident commanding officer, who sleeps with a 9mm pistol under his pillow. He declined to be identified. "We want to punish Islamabad for fueling terrorism in Kashmir for 13 years, provided the politicians in Delhi let us," he added, sipping his beer in the cool of the well-appointed bunker, while offering an endless stream of snacks to his clandestine journalist guests.

(SNIP)

"We will lose face if we do not fight after such a buildup and withdraw," another officer said. It will merely give Pakistan and the world the message that India only postures, but does not follow up with action, he added. "The militants can attack us, not our women and children," a soldier said, referring to the recent Jammu strike. "Is this the kind of war that Pakistan and its lashkars [militants] are capable of fighting?" he asked, his voice choked with emotion.

(SNIP)

But other military officers conceded a war would serve little purpose other than to beggar the two already impoverished nations. "We need a peace offensive, not war," one officer declared, adding that politicians are prone to acting with haste on military matters and regretting the consequences at their leisure.

(MORE)

3//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting 30 May 2002
http://www.stratfor.com/fib/topStory_view.php?ID=204646

GAZA SECURITY CHIEF COULD BE ARAFAT'S REPLACEMENT

Summary

The United States is looking for acceptable candidates to replace Palestinian Authority leader Yasser Arafat, with Gaza Palestinian security chief Mohammed Dahlan reportedly near the top of the list. But positioning the more moderate Dahlan as a potential heir to Arafat could create problems for long-term peace efforts if extremist groups like Hamas feel they are being left in the cold.

Analysis

Amid growing pressure on Yasser Arafat to reform his Palestinian Authority, Israeli daily Haaretz reported May 30 that Washington is looking at Mohammed Dahlan as a leading candidate to head a revamped Palestinian security force structure. The 41-year-old head of the Palestinian Preventive Security force in the Gaza Strip is also allegedly seen as a prime candidate to replace the aging Arafat.

Citing unnamed Israeli sources, the report claims that Dahlan won the approval of National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice during a visit to Washington last week. The accuracy of the report is still unclear, and calls to the White House were not returned. What is clear is that Dahlan is a logical and likely choice to succeed Arafat. But electing to work with a moderate Palestinian leader at the expense of more extremist elements like Hamas could make a longer-term solution to the conflict impossible.

(SNIP)

He is considered something of a moderate, has far-reaching power in Gaza, is well known to American security officials and has a long-standing relationship with the CIA. Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot also reports that he is the only Palestinian besides Arafat to have held a private meeting with former U.S. President Bill Clinton.

According to the Middle East Review of International Affairs, Dahlan was arrested nearly a dozen times while acting as the Gaza chief of the Fatah Shabiba (youth) movement during the first Palestinian intifada. He was deported in 1988 and returned in 1994. This has helped give him street credibility, something the United States and Israel will seek in any Palestinian partner, and he enjoys broad popular support among the Palestinians.

His base in Gaza also makes him a good candidate given that Israel will seek a partner capable of keeping a lid on radical movements such as Hamas, which is predominately based in Gaza, during and after a change in the Palestinian leadership.

(SNIP)

Dahlan's West Bank counterpart Jibril Rajoub and Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti have also been tipped as potential successors to Arafat. But Dahlan is also gaining ground internationally. He approached the Saudis with demands for Israel to lift the siege on Arafat's compound in Ramallah prior to Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah's visit to the United States in late April, the Mideast Mirror reported.

Establishing a working relationship with Saudi Arabia, which has recently taken more responsibility for Hamas' actions and remains a key U.S. partner in the Persian Gulf, could increase Dahlan's credibility and legitimacy. He could turn to Riyadh when he needs help keeping Hamas in line and can even use the Saudis as a conduit for dealing with other Arab nations.

However, favoring a moderate as the point man for peace efforts and potential replacement for Arafat also has its disadvantages. Although Dahlan is considered a member of the younger generation and has street credibility, he does not represent more radical groups like Hamas. By aligning with a moderate, the United States and Israel leave extremist Palestinian factions with little reason to adhere to any peace agreements.

4//The Daily Yomiuri May 31, 2002
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/index-e.htm

2002 WORLD CUP / WORLD CUP A CATALYST FOR FENCE-MENDING
By Fumiya Akagi Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writer

The soccer World Cup finals are expected to provide a good opportunity for Japan and South Korea to patch up their relationship, which has long been soured by lingering problems over the past.

"The event, being held for the first time in Asia, is very significant as it will contribute to friendship and amity between Japan and South Korea," Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi reportedly told his Cabinet members Friday. Koizumi instructed his ministers to try their best to ensure the success of the event, which kicks off Friday.

Some senior Foreign Ministry officials are anticipating that the World Cup will provide an opportunity for the governments to settle problems between the two countries.

"We want to make this event historic, to dispel the ill feelings stemming from the past," a senior ministry official said.

Koizumi will attend the World Cup opening ceremony to be held in Seoul on Friday. Although the prime minister will not hold summit talks with South Korean President Kim Dae Jung there, the two leaders are considering a plan to spotlight the two countries' cooperative relationship to the world at the ceremony.

Kim is scheduled to visit Japan to attend the closing ceremony, which will be held in Yokohama on June 30. During their talks in Japan, the two leaders are expected to discuss ways to create a new bilateral relationship.

The South Korean government had sought a visit to Seoul by the Emperor, but the Japanese government demurred, saying the time was not yet ripe, according to government sources. Instead, Prince and Princess Takamado will attend the opening ceremony, making it the first official visit by the Japanese Imperial family to South Korea since World War II.

(MORE)

5//Sydney Morning Herald Friday May 31, 2002
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/05/30/1022569813997.html

US TO CALL FOR MORE DIGGERS IN FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM
By Gay Alcorn, Herald Correspondent in Washington

The United States will request more Australian troops for the war against terrorism, the US deputy Defence Secretary, Paul Wolfowitz, says.

In a media briefing before leaving for a regional security conference in Singapore, Mr Wolfowitz praised Australia's military contribution in Afghanistan and made general references to the need for ongoing support from allies.

(SNIP)

Mr Wolfowitz, the Bush Administration's leading expert on Asian affairs, will attend the Asian Security Conference at the weekend, which is expected to discuss anti-terrorism measures, US plans for missile defences, China-Taiwan relations and regional co-operation.

Australia's Defence Minister, Robert Hill, will also attend the meetings, which bring together defence ministers from the Asia-Pacific region, Britain, Russia, the US and Canada.

The White House is concerned about extremist groups in Asia and their links to the al-Qaeda terrorist network.

Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines have detained terrorist suspects since September 11. The US has stationed about 1000 troops in the southern Philippines to advise and train local forces to fight the militant group Abu Sayyaf.

The Philippines operation ends on July 31, and Mr Wolfowitz said he would discuss with the country's Government "what both countries want to do beyond that". He plans to stop in the capital, Manila, after the Singapore conference to visit US special forces.

(SNIP)

A spokesman for Senator Hill said Australia was making a continuing contribution to the war on terrorism.

"However, our physical commitment at this stage does not extend beyond the Gulf and Afghanistan. Any additional requests will have to be judged on a case-by-case basis."

6//Pravda 13:54 2002-05-30
http://english.pravda.ru/main/2002/05/30/29514.html

CIA AND FBI POWERLESS. SEISMOLOGISTS TO PREDICT TERRORISM ATTACKS
Vasily Bubnov
Translated by Maria Gousseva

Best analysts not only in the USA but all over the world are racking their brains now over the problem how to prevent acts of terrorism. It became evident soon after publications saying that the White House and US special services had been warned of the Sept.11 terrorism attacks. It is of no use now to debate whether it was possible to prevent terrorism attacks or not, some other problems are of greater importance now. For example, it is unbelievable that US special service officers were not smart enough to forecast further events on the basis of information at their disposal. They could have foreseen how and where possible terrorist attacks could be committed.

The US Government is evidently worried about this problem as well. Recently active work has been started as concerning reforming of special services and guarantee of security to scientists. In particular, a seminar of American and European seismologists is being held now in Washington. Scientists say, earthquake science may be an information source as concerning possible acts of terrorism.

It is believed, seismology can define a place where weak nuclear explosions may occur, because extremists need first to test explosive devices while preparing acts of terrorism.

Professor of the University of California John Vidale said, when two WTC towers in New York collapsed, seismologists registered shocks hundred times stronger than all previous earthquakes.

(MORE)

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© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

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