World Media Watch for August 28, 2002

BUZZFLASH NOTE: Once again, these are the views and perspectives of the individual papers, not of BuzzFlash or Gloria. They offer BuzzFlash readers a way of reading what other nations are saying about the crisis, whether we like it or not. We repeat: This is not an endorsement of their viewpoints.

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1//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting, USA--THE IRAQ DEBATE: THE COMING COUNTERATTACK (The Bush administration is bowing to the letter of coalition partners' demands to be consulted before an attack is launched, and a diplomatic blitz involving European and Saudi leaders is soon to come. The administration will demand from these partners an alternative strategy for advancing the war against al Qaeda -- but Washington officials will not settle for an invisible war. Faced with demands for their own suggestions, coalition partners likely will have little to say, and the consultations will turn into a sandbag for the anti-war faction.)

2//Interfax News Agency, Russia--U.S. LIKELY TO HIT IRAQ ON SEPT. 11 - RUSSIAN PARLIAMENT MEMBER (But if the United States does strike on September 11, its "allies in the anti-terrorism coalition may find themselves in a difficult position," Margelov said. "It would be rather difficult not to support the USA on that day.)

3//Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA), Iran--YUNESI DISMISSES AS "SHEER LIE" CLAIMS OF SADDAM'S SON (Information Minister Hojatoleslam Ali Yunesi here on Monday refuted the recent claim of Uday, the son of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, that Iran is linked with a group in northern Iraq which is said to support the al-Qaeda network. Yunesi in an interview with IRNA said the rumor which has been spread by Iraqi officials to win Americans' consent is a "sheer lie.")

4//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong--MUSHARRAF BIDS UNCLE SAM FAREWELL (…while Musharraf remains confined to his army house in Rawalpindi, it is not a matter of particular concern to the US, which has already sucked as much advantage as it can out of using Pakistan as a frontline state in the war against terror. Attention has now shifted to the Middle East and Iraq, a region where Pakistan is of little relevance, especially when it comes to a "regime change" to oust Saddam Hussein - Jordan and Turkey are now the targets of Washington's charm offensive.)

Related stories of interest from Asia Times Online:

PAKISTAN IN THE SHADOW OF TERROR
US AIR FORCE FLIES INTO PROBLEM IN ASIA

5//The Moscow Times, Russia--OPINION/COMMENT: MANAGING FREEDOM OF SPEECH (This state of affairs is called manageable democracy, or, more to the point, manageable freedom of speech. I get the impression that many of our government officials have either never read the Constitution or willfully forgotten its existence. Article 29 of the Constitution -- which provides for freedom of the press and forbids censorship, among other things -- is not something the generals and the Kremlin bureaucrats want to think about. Laws in Russia are not meant to be implemented. They're just meant to lie there and look pretty.)

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1//Stratfor Strategic Forecasting 26 August 2002
http://www.stratfor.com/fib/topStory_view.php?ID=205894

THE IRAQ DEBATE: THE COMING COUNTERATTACK

Summary

What appears to be a retreat from plans for a U.S. attack on Iraq may in fact be little more than a lull in the storm. The Bush administration is bowing to the letter of coalition partners' demands to be consulted before an attack is launched, and a diplomatic blitz involving European and Saudi leaders is soon to come. The administration will demand from these partners an alternative strategy for advancing the war against al Qaeda -- but Washington officials will not settle for an invisible war. Faced with demands for their own suggestions, coalition partners likely will have little to say, and the consultations will turn into a sandbag for the anti-war faction.

Analysis

Having publicly retreated last week on invading Iraq, there is no question that the pro-war faction within the Bush administration will now mount a counterattack. The retreat of the Rumsfeld-Wolfowitz faction should not be considered a strategic defeat but merely a tactical withdrawal, for the moment. In fact, it should be seen as a tactical withdrawal that has the potential of trapping those who oppose an attack on Iraq in an untenable position.

(SNIP)

For Europe, the central problem is this: Washington sees the war against al Qaeda as superseding all other considerations. The Bush administration's primary fear is that this action will consist of a long, invisible, covert war, punctuated by catastrophic attacks by al Qaeda. The Bush administration knows it cannot confine its actions to an invisible war. European leaders, on the other hand, do not see the al Qaeda problem as superseding all other issues, and so they are not averse to the covert/catastrophic model that Washington officials dread. They will propose more of the same. Powell will come home with nothing, and his ability to launch another counterattack like that of the past two weeks will disappear.

A similar process will be take place with Saudi Arabia. On Aug. 27 Bush will meet with Saudi officials in Crawford, Texas. The Saudi demand to be consulted will be met. They will raise the Palestinian question, and Bush will point out that the war on al Qaeda cannot wait on an Israeli-Palestinian solution. He then will ask Saudi officials to tell him, absent an Israeli-Palestinian settlement, how they would like the United States to proceed. The Saudis will have no plan to offer. They intend a blocking strategy, and when the president asks them how they will enable the war, they will have little to say.

At this point, the Rumsfeld-Wolfowitz faction will have regained the initiative and perhaps control. The concerns of Schwarzkopf and the Army will be acknowledged, and war plans will be constructed to include a larger role for armor rolling out of Turkey and possibly Kuwait or Jordan. But the core issue, the coalition, will have been dealt with. The allies will have been consulted -- and apart from saying no, they will have said nothing….The argument that there were no consultations will be mooted. Net result: The Rumsfeld-Wolfowitz faction's temporary retreat will turn into a sandbag for its opponents.

(MORE)

2//Interfax News Agency 27.08.2002 19:53:01
http://www.interfax.ru/one_news_en.html?
lang=EN&tz=0&tz_format=MSK&id_news=5590735

U.S. LIKELY TO HIT IRAQ ON SEPT. 11 - RUSSIAN PARLIAMENT MEMBER

MOSCOW. Aug 27 (Interfax) - On Tuesday, a senior member of the Russian parliament surmised that the United States would start its anticipated armed operation against Iraq on September 11.

"In view of the practice of political decision making in the USA, September 11 may be the likeliest date for such a strike. In that case, with the high tide of reminiscences about last year's tragedy, the necessary public support for commencing the hostilities would be guaranteed," Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the upper house international affairs committee, told Interfax.

(SNIP)

But if the United States does strike on September 11, its "allies in the anti-terrorism coalition may find themselves in a difficult position," Margelov said.

"It would be rather difficult not to support the USA on that day. Besides, in the year that has passed after the unprecedented terrorist attack, the Bush administration has managed to cope with the Taliban and carry through a radical positive change in Afghanistan's political system. But then it would be illogical to oppose such a change to the political system in Iraq as well," Margelov argued.

MORE)

3//Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) Last Update Tuesday, 27-Aug-2002 11:14:09 PDT
http://www.irna.com/en/tnews/020827193302.etn00.shtml

YUNESI DISMISSES AS "SHEER LIE" CLAIMS OF SADDAM'S SON

Tehran, Aug 26, IRNA -- Information Minister Hojatoleslam Ali Yunesi here on Monday refuted the recent claim of Uday, the son of Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, that Iran is linked with a group in northern Iraq which is said to support the al-Qaeda network.

Yunesi in an interview with IRNA said the rumor which has been spread by Iraqi officials to win Americans' consent is a "sheer lie."

Uday had claimed recently that Iran had had links with the group `Ansar-ul-Islam' in northern Iraq that is allegedly cooperate with the al-Qaeda network.

Yunesi said, "We had been in confrontation with the Taliban and al-Qaeda; the group had been supporting and harboring the notorious groups fleeing east of Iran and the Islamic Republic of Iran has paid a dear cost to confront the group."

He also termed as "pure fabrication" the claims of American officials that certain al-Qaeda elements were present in Iran.

Meanwhile, Yunesi in an address to mass media representatives here on Monday ruled out the possibility of wide-scale military attacks by the US on Iran due to lack of domestic, regional and international grounds.

Yunesi said even Americans do not make such a claim but compared to the past, there is a stronger possibility of limited economic, political and military strikes against Iran.

He said, "The Islamic Republic of Iran will not welcome war; but if a war is imposed on us, we will be capable to defend ourselves and to this end, we have adopted some strategies too."

(MORE)

4//Asia Times Online
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/DH28Df01.html

MUSHARRAF BIDS UNCLE SAM FAREWELL
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

(SNIP)

Events have turned dramatically against Musharraf since he sacrificed his personal ambitions and what many believe to have been the national interest in backing the United States in its war on Afghanistan, culminating in at least two known attempts on his life by suspected splinter militant groups determined to punish Musharraf for walking hand-in-hand with Washington.

And to add insult to injury, while Musharraf remains confined to his army house in Rawalpindi, it is not a matter of particular concern to the US, which has already sucked as much advantage as it can out of using Pakistan as a frontline state in the war against terror.

Attention has now shifted to the Middle East and Iraq, a region where Pakistan is of little relevance, especially when it comes to a "regime change" to oust Saddam Hussein - Jordan and Turkey are now the targets of Washington's charm offensive.

(SNIP)

These political moves apart, the US-based South Asia Tribune has also hinted at contact between Musharraf and top jihadi leaders. Although such meetings have not been confirmed, Asia Times Online has learnt that two of the main militant groups, the banned Lashkar-i-Taiba (an Islamic militant group that has been active in Kashmir), and the also-banned Harkatul Mujahadeen, have recently mobilized their resources and instructed their men to move to Lahore. No exact reasons have been given for this, but it is likely that the militant groups are preparing for renewed forays into Indian-administered Kashmir. Musharraf had promised, under pressure from the US, and with some success, to curb cross-border operations by Pakistan-based militants into Indian Kashmir. Expect this to change, especially before the Jammu and Kashmir state elections begin in September.

Meanwhile, there are further signs of a reemergence of anti-US groupings in Afghanistan, with reports of US casualties in skirmishes in Kunar, Khost and Paktia. These factions have been able to form because of relaxed vigilance over the border routes between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Again, like the cross-border activities into Kashmir, Musharraf had promised the US that the borders would be sealed to prevent the Taliban and al-Qaeda members from seeking refuge in Pakistan.

Initially this was the case, but recently Pakistan has kept a negligible presence on its western borders, allowing a virtually free flow of people and goods. Sources said that in the past month two large Taliban convoys comprising about 1,000 armed persons moved into Waziristan Agency in Pakistan's semi-autonomous tribal region. The district administration knew of their presence and also informed the higher-ups. They were asked to monitor the movement of the convoy, which they did until it crossed back into Afghanistan.

(MORE)

--Related stories of interest in Asia Times Online-

PAKISTAN IN THE SHADOW OF TERROR
By Pepe Escobar

Now the splinter jihadi groups are leaving the Punjab and spreading around selected parts of the tribal areas, where any kind of travelling by foreigners has been strictly prohibited by Pakistani authorities. The Americans have established military bases in four of the eight tribal agencies - including ultra-hardcore and famously pro-Taliban Waziristan agency. Pashtun sources confirm that anti-American sentiment in all agencies is running at fever pitch.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/DH28Df02.html

US AIR FORCE FLIES INTO PROBLEM IN ASIA
By David Isenberg

The Asia-Pacific region poses an access challenge for the US Air Force (USAF) because the United States lacks basing options for military operations in the region - a problem with no easy solution, according to a new report issued by RAND, the air force's premier think-tank, whose studies often presage Pentagon policy.

It is no surprise that the United States has been looking to Asia as the most likely place where it will fight future wars. Several high-level reports in recent years have been quite explicit in that regard.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/DH28Ad01.html

5//The Moscow Times Tuesday, Aug. 27, 2002. Page 12
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2002/08/27/006.html

OPINION/COMMENT: MANAGING FREEDOM OF SPEECH
By Oleg Panfilov
Oleg Panfilov, director of the Center for Journalism in Extreme Situations, contributed this comment to The Moscow Times.

On Aug. 16, Russian soldiers detained camera crews from ORT television and TV Center working in Chechnya and confiscated their cameras, microphones, personal belongings and press passes. Alexei Borzenko, a correspondent for TV Center, told the Interfax news agency that the soldiers were from the military commandant's office.

(SNIP)

This incident highlights two troubling aspects of the peculiar relationship between journalists and the military, which since August 1999 has flouted the Constitution and its laws regulating the press.

The first is that journalists cannot and will not do anything to defend themselves. After the Aug. 16 incident, the journalists involved appealed not to the Prosecutor General's Office, but to Akhmad Kadyrov, head of the pro-Moscow Chechen administration, who has no direct jurisdiction over the military or the press.

The second is that the army was conducting a special operation and didn't want journalists to witness its methods, or the result. The military usually describes its operations in Chechnya as counter-terrorism, thereby taking cover behind a law "on the war on terrorism" signed by then-President Boris Yeltsin on July 25, 1998.

(SNIP)

Contrary to the current practice, the law on the press says the accrediting agency is called upon to assist journalists, not to restrict their movement and hinder their work. Freedom of speech in Russia was a catchphrase among Western journalists and politicians during the Yeltsin years and a key indicator used in assessing the new Russian democracy. Yeltsin certainly had plenty of cause to lash out at the Russian press, which at times openly discussed his affair with the bottle. But he never did, for he remembered that he had come to power thanks in no small part to favorable press coverage.

President Vladimir Putin has an entirely different relationship with the press -- he fears and loathes it. That is, he would like the press to be obedient, patriotic and serve the interests of the state, though he seems to forget that it's too late to send journalists back into the dark age of censorship. He has managed to make some "progress" in this direction, however. The tests he has already "passed" include the old team of journalists at NTV television, the Kursk tragedy, TV6, Ekho Moskvy radio, Novaya Gazeta newspaper, etc. This list could be extended, but just how far depends on Russian journalists themselves.

(SNIP)

The law provides a mechanism for exerting pressure on the government when a journalist's rights are violated. It's Article 144 of the Criminal Code, which includes penalties for hindering a journalist in his work. The correspondents of ORT and TV Center could have filed a complaint with the prosecutor's office requesting a criminal investigation. They chose to follow Soviet tradition -- asking their superiors to get involved. No one really wants to implement the laws -- not the government, not the journalists.

This state of affairs is called manageable democracy, or, more to the point, manageable freedom of speech. I get the impression that many of our government officials have either never read the Constitution or willfully forgotten its existence. Article 29 of the Constitution -- which provides for freedom of the press and forbids censorship, among other things -- is not something the generals and the Kremlin bureaucrats want to think about. Laws in Russia are not meant to be implemented. They're just meant to lie there and look pretty.

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© 2002, Gloria R. Lalumia
insight@zianet.com

Updated listings of Radio for Progressives on the internet at http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical

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