February 7th 2020

By Paul Sheridan and Neil Wollman

A recent news article stated: “With world leaders gathering in Madrid next week … the latest assessment issued by the United Nations said Tuesday that greenhouse gas emissions are still rising dangerously. ‘The summary findings are bleak.’ Countries have failed to halt the rise of greenhouse gas emissions despite repeated warnings from scientists…. The result… is that “deeper and faster cuts are now required.” (“Bleak U.N. Report on a Planet in Peril Looms Over New Climate Talks,” NY Times, Nov. 26.)

But, as we know, the U.S. and other major polluters are going in the opposite direction. If current trends continue, what might be expected to happen in the coming decades? We present below a hypothetical scenario for the future — a possible dystopian future. It is soon to be a major motion picture perhaps (“Apes of the Planet?”) — or maybe a reality show in years to come…

Early in this century, many promises were made. This Protocol, that Report…Kyoto, Paris, a most important Summit, the Biggest of Conferences. Technologies were available to decarbonize electricity production, to increase buildings’ efficiency, to protect and restore natural ecosystems, to get cropland to absorb more carbon than it releases. The largest emitters declined to step up their commitments in any significant way. And then, time ran out.

First, the great floods and fires of the 2050s, then resulting refugee migrations, next the famine of 2062–67 (enhanced by desertification and loss of most insects), and then the Wars for Water. The planet’s problems accelerated — epidemics, SARS, Ebola, New AIDS resurgence. Most countries were affected by rising sea levels due to global warming — numerous cities were already gone — Manila, Lagos, Guangzhou, Rotterdam, Hanoi — Osaka’s history, Venice’s heritage, and New York’s riches. The impacts tended to fall disproportionately on the poor and vulnerable, those least responsible for the problems.

The ancestors of the current elite had said none of this would happen, everything would be fine, it was just a cycle, and if we reacted, it would hurt our economy. Fish depopulation, weather events, fires, shrinking biodiversity, all sorts of extractive mining — these were all just temporary aberrations. Some said a warmer planet would be good, because “Earth will be able to support enormously more people, because a far greater land area will be available to produce food.” Those in the Administration and Congress had held up needed legislation back in the early 2000s. Those in the oil industry had perpetuated myths.

But starting in the 2050’s the descendants of those who didn’t act when they should have paid the price — whether deserved or not — for their ancestors’ betrayal of the environment. Many were killed, some went into hiding. Others, feeling a great guilt, committed suicide. Reports on where the descendants lived helped further their demise, with targeted assassinations.

It was pure rage and not rationality that fueled the slaughter; those who killed were desperate, seeing a bleak present and bleaker future. That despair was at its worst in the infamous Women’s Massacres of the 2060s — of women, and by women. Continually multiplying social inequalities meant the rioters and the gangs had nothing to lose.

Some offspring were defensive, continuing to embrace their ancestors, saying they knew not what they had done. Others felt shame, changed their names, moved to other continents in the hope of being unnoticed. And some disavowed their ancestors’ misdeeds, and dedicated their own lives to making the best of a hopeless situation, to better the lives of those still surviving. Some descendants contributed their inheritances to the neediest survivors. They realized their ancestors’ errors and sought mercy in public, but that was not very effective when facing a mob. The 2020’s US Senate leader’s family spoke out publicly, decrying the actions of their ancestors — but they were still among the missing when the rioting intensified, intent on retribution.

For those multitudes who were not descendants and whose lives were not ended abruptly, there was a death of hope instead. For a while there had been some possibility for survival by colonizing space, but the dreams of a Next Frontier were dashed by the collapse of any research in the technologies needed. There was no escape, no Argentina to disappear to…things would only get worse. It was just a matter of when we would die on this planet, with no way out. The living started to envy the dead, even those who died for their ancestors’ sins.