January 8, 2023

By Stephen Eric Bronner

The Russo-Ukrainian War drags on like a bad dream. Admittedly, there are glimmers of hope: Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated his readiness to participate in an international peace conference. His conditions are: Ukraine must first demilitarize, recognize Russian annexations, especially Crimea and territories around Kherson, and guarantee Russian security. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that he, too is willing to negotiate, but Russia must first meet ten conditions including withdrawal of all forces from all Ukrainian territories including Crimea. The insincerity on both sides is striking: negotiations are un necessary when the demands of each have been met in advance. 

Negotiate now! The stated preconditions for talks are merely excuses to delay them There is no time to wait! Waves of Russian bombs are blasting Ukraine’s cities to bits while Ukraine’s Kamikaze drones have struck 600 miles into Russia. Russian defeats have mounted and Putin’s potential successors, including Yevgeny Prigozhin, the power behind “Wagner,” the savage mercenary group, are sharpening their knives. Following the failure of Putin’s genocidal land strategy, , his air attacks have wrecked one-third of Ukraine’s electric grids and power stations leaving the majority of its citizens heat, water, or electricity in freezing temperatures. Estimates are that 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed. Thousands of Ukrainian lives have been lost at the front, and more are dying from lack of consumer staples, hospital beds, and medicines. 

All these numbers will climb: Russia is now preparing a counter-attack using 200,000 fresh troops, Belarus might open a “second front,” and Ukraine is continuing its land-war while employing ever more lethal missiles. Contradictions exist, and their resolution depends upon successful negotiations between these warring states: 

---- Ukraine is completely reliant on Western humanitarian and military aid in order to defend its sovereignty. Terminating aid is unthinkable though indefinitely maintaining its  present scale is impossible. 

--- Russia thus has an incentive to drag out the conflict while Ukraine obviously feels the pressure to win an unwinnable war as quickly as possible. Either way, escalation is likely.  

--- Ukraine’s territorial victories have led Russia to bomb civilian targets mercilessly in a  spiraling increase of violence. This will only lead Ukraine to strengthen its aviation corps, and air defense systems, whereas Russia will expand its army  to protect against invasion. However, what both sides present as “defensive” strategies will likely set the stage for future offensives. 

 ---Leaders of Ukraine and Russia have both staked their reputations on military victory even though their economies are verging on collapse, and their citizens are despairing. The national interest of  civil society  and the national interests of governments are thus objectively in conflict.

The United States Congress has just provided the American military with a 35% increase and a total budget of $813 billion. Much of it is intended to replenish weapons already sent to Ukraine, and new weapons will surely need replenishing in the future. Close to $20 billion has already gone to Ukraine and upwards of $48 billion has just been allocated for next year, including “patriot” defense missiles. However, so far, President Joe Biden has refused to send battle tanks, precision missiles, and fighter jets. More ominously, the House of Representatives in 2023 will have a new Republican majority controlled by its far-right wing. faction’s extremist representatives are very influential. They blame inflation on aid to Ukraine, call for abolishing it completely, and consider this  “Biden’s war.” 

The United Kingdom is the second largest donor to Ukraine; it has provided roughly 2.3 billion euros in aid during 2022. However, the UK is expecting a recession; it is still reeling from Brexit, its economic policies are erratic, and its inflation rate is over 10%. Meanwhile, the European Union has implemented new sanctions including a total embargo on the importation of Russian oil that will negatively impact the Russian economy, but also create hardships for its own citizens. Fissures are also growing between the EU’s Western and Eastern members over how to distribute the mounting military costs and the destructive capacities of weapons sent to Ukraine. The EU’s Eastern members are understandably more worried about Russian invasion than their Western counterparts, and they differ in their views on possible war between NATO and Russia. Nevertheless, it would be irresponsible for any of these states to ignore signs of an alliance forming  between Russia, Iran, China, Belarus, and other dictatorships, to counter NATO.

Western media justifiably salutes the courage and resilience of  Ukraine in facing Russia’s genocidal invasion. However, support for the Ukrainian citizenry is uncritically conflated with support for the government’s war efforts. Their thinking is compounded by fears regarding the “appeasement” of Russia  though costs imposed by this war should temper its imperialist ambitions for the foreseeable future. Contempt for negotiation efforts by self-styled only turning prolongation of the war into a self-fulfilling prophecy. Meanwhile, human rights activists bemoan Russian atrocities even as they endorse policies that assure their continuance. Should the situation worsen for Russia, probabilities increase that Putin will launch a “tactical” nuclear strike. Talks cannot wait for that to happen or withdrawal of all forces or acceptance of competing war aims, especially since rough parameters for an agreement exist. 

--- Negotiations should include all nations directly or indirectly involved in the conflict, and they must initially call for immediate de-escalation and troop withdrawals to the borders of March 23, 2022. 

----  Security guarantees are necessary for both nations: Ukraine must become a neutral and non-nuclear state; it will not join NATO and, in exchange, it will receive permission join the EU. Sanctions on Russia would be lifted in accordance with its practices in de-escalating the conflict. 

--- Monitoring the implementation of any peace and investigating human rights violations must involve independent international agencies. For example, the UN High Commissioner on Refugees (UNHCR) will oversee plans to deal with refugees, exchange of prisoners, collection of corpses, and elimination of land-mines. 

--- Creating an international “fund,” similar to the global climate fund, is necessary  to reconstruct Ukraine. 

Continuing support for Ukraine is vital, but it must come with conditions. Even speculative suggestions for peace are necessary when there is only talk of war. The humanitarian catastrophe is worsening and the global community must prioritize the material needs of everyday citizens (and soldiers) over those of governments. Not to talk about peace is to perpetuate war—pure and simple—and that is something the people of Russia and Ukraine cannot afford. Negotiate now!

Stephen Eric Bronner is Co-Director of the International Council for Diplomacy and Dialogue and Board of Governors Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Rutgers University.