April 19, 2020

MARK KARLIN, EDITOR OF BUZZFLASH

As I noted in a commentary on April 13, The Second Wave of Coronavirus Infections and Deaths Is Already Underway, With a Willful Boost From Trump. Infection rates are steadily rising among “essential workers,” even as Trump is declaring victory over the pandemic. Now, he wants to send the full workforce, in stages, back to work, many taking public transportation with high-Coronavirus transmission, while also promising to open gyms (infection petri dishes) and allowing large church services.

Of course, the governors will make these decisions, but Trump sets the tone for most Red state governors, and transmission anywhere in the US creates a greater risk to us all.

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For Trump to encourage workers to risk their health and lives is like those firefighters who were sent into an exploded nuclear core at Chernobyl in 1986, knowingly exposed to deadly and cancer-causing radiation. That is, in reality, the situation our heroic hospital staffs and first responders currently find themselves in, particularly with Trump’s failure to deliver horribly needed Personal Protective Equipment (PPE).

This crisis is far, far from over. And the second wave has already occurred among those individuals in generally low-wage jobs (although there are currently high-infection rates in higher-paying industries, such as the airlines), which Trump and the media, in general, appear to be ignoring as Trump’s narrative that the pandemic is waning is accepted. It’s a dangerous delusion that might not only cause another surge in COVID-19 infections and deaths, but also cause the economy to suffer a second blow as states (except for the holdout Red states) again order people to shelter in place.

In fact, a recent Atlantic Magazine article makes the argument that the so-called “flattening of the curve” in some hot-spots in terms of infections has more to do with a relative static rate of testing since April 1 (125,000 nationally per day) than an actual fall-off in infections.

That is why I wrote on April 9, If Trump “Opens Up the Economy" on May 1, It Will Close Again by May 15 Due to Reignited COVID-19 Infectious Spread.” (It actually would probably be around May 21.)

The media, for the most part (excluding the right-wing Trump echo chamber press) is now on the bandwagon that more infection testing (which Trump continues to obstruct) needs to be done, particularly a testing strategy of asymptomatic Americans, contact tracing, isolation of infected individuals, and antibody (serology) testing. This is also what most governors are insisting on (except for some Red state holdouts). Even CEO’s have warned Trump that there needs to be large-scale testing done, including everyone who re-enters the workforce, because they are concerned about liability.

However, to really reduce infection, those who work out of home or don’t work at all will also need to be tested if they attend group gatherings such as restaurants, religious services, theaters, etc.. Otherwise, any crowd of more than one person has the potential for transmission occurring.

It is clear that the current (as of the evening of April 19) 765,000 tested and confirmed cases is a massive undercount. Dr. Zeke Emanuel speculated on MSNBC recently that the actual US COVID-19 infection rate may be 10 times higher, or roughly 7,650,000 persons. There are other estimates that run both lower and higher, but the bottom line is we will never know the risks being undertaken in returning to work outside the home without testing of perhaps a million persons a day (higher in the beginning to include workers returning to their jobs), with the goal of universal population testing in America.

An April 17 CNN article reporting on a Santa Clara County, California study of antibody serology tests (which confirms both current and inactive Coronavirus infections) stated:

The study used an antibody blood test to estimate how many people had been infected with Covid-19 in the past. Other tests, like those performed with nasal swabs or saliva, test for the virus' genetic material, which does not persist long after recovery, as antibodies do….

The study estimated that 2.49% to 4.16% of people in Santa Clara County had been infected with Covid-19 by April 1. This represents between 48,000 and 81,000 people, which is 50 to 85 times what county officials recorded by that date: 956 confirmed cases.

What this means speculatively is that at some point, 50 to 85 times confirmed cases are potentially transmitting the virus at some point. This is of particular concern for asymptomatic carriers of the virus who have no knowledge that they are infected. If they go out in public for work or recreation without being tested, then they will be infecting others.

In its Coronavirus coverage, The Los Angeles Times emphasized the transmission challenge also posed by pre-symptomatic carriers:

People infected with the new coronavirus are likely spreading it for close to 2½ days before their first signs of illness appear, according to a scientific study.

The study found that an infected person is most contagious about 18 hours before feeling the first blush of fever, body aches, or bouts of coughing. That means an infected person can walk around feeling fine for more than two full days while spreading the virus into the air, putting it onto doorknobs and handrails, and leaving the germs for future infections.

The findings, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, present a new challenge as people contemplate a return to pre-pandemic life, with people at work and children in schools.

The thermometers and symptoms questionnaires at business and work entrances won’t help in this time frame. The infected person will feel well enough to go about their regular activities. And unless they are wearing masks, they could be blowing the virus in your direction.

This reality is going to require public health strategies that are not currently in place, given that Trump disbanded the real White House pandemic task force that President Obama had created.

The complexities of “reopening the economy” without a comprehensive plan, increased testing, a plan run by public health professionals (the White House has no real plan, so it would take time to come up with one) — and with Trump indifferent to the loss of life as he remains fixated on his “Daily Trump Reality-TV Shows” — would indicate that this pernicious and merciless virus requires the marshaling of national resources that FDR undertook to win WW II.

Trump is incapable of that assertion of leadership on behalf of the nation. In fact, he appears to be fanning the pandemic in a number of ways, as I pointed out last week: Trump Intentionally Let the Coronavirus "Wash Over" America, a Failure by Design.

Why? Because he is a narcissistic sociopath who thrives on chaos and dominating the news cycles. Even if he cared about the lives of others, beyond his own family, he doesn’t have the skill set to lead a nation in taking on a pandemic and to inspire confidence. He is wired to appeal to the basest instincts in his followers, who are members of his cult of death.

One can bemoan the shelter-in-place laws, and no one wished for COVID-19, but it us upon us, a modern day plague. Patience is the most important factor we have working for us. The steps needed to begin a recharged economy will be enormously complex. Take for instance that many workplaces (think cold cramped meat slaughtering houses where Coronavirus is rampant in several of them, or active warehouses where there is little room for social distancing, or offices where desks are in rows that don’t meet the six foot rule, or crunched together airplane seating.) Think of crowded retail outlets and malls. Think of restaurants with tables jammed side by side. Think of public washrooms.

No, the Coronavirus is not going to “disappear like magic.”

Of course, in terms of the economy (and I am leaving the social side and entertainment side of our lives aside for the moment), what ultimately will delay “reopening it” will be the workers themselves. Many of the essential workers make minimum wage or low salaries because they need the work, but as more become infected, more are leaving the workforce. Those who have been laid off and working poor deserve to have a $2 trillion package that benefits them. The miles-long lines for some food banks is an international embarrassment and an indication of the deep inequality in the US.

An April 19 Washington Post article revealed the biggest obstacle Trump has to achieving his economic fantasies aimed at re-election:

In a poll released Thursday by the Pew Research Center, three-quarters of U.S. adults said the worst is yet to come with the novel coronavirus, and two-thirds were worried that restrictions would be lifted too soon. Findings released Friday by the University of Michigan’s influential monthly consumer survey found that 61 percent were most concerned by the threat to their health from the virus, more than from isolation and financial impact.

The wall Trump will run headfirst into is that many workers who, when confronted with deciding between their money or their lives — and the health security of their families — are not going to go back to a workplace when the Coronavirus is still an infectious threat, with little data known about its current risk in the US.

Trump can control most news cycles, but the majority of Americans know he is a con artist, and they aren’t going to be cured by taking Trump’s favorite huckster medication: hydroxychloroquine.

The workers that Trump regards as disposable may be the ones that bring Trump’s Disneyesque dream of a revived economy crashing down, until there is more testing, more data, more tracing, more public health surveillance, directives from OSHA that maximize workplace protection and redesigned workplaces to reduce infection, and higher wages. Until Trump provides truthful leadership that inspires confidence, something he has not ever provided, this economy is staying put.

Also Read: Trump Is Shooting Us on Coronavirus Avenue and Getting Away With It

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