New Alarming Poll: On Election Night, Majority of Republican Voters Will Trust GOP-Controlled Legislatures to Choose Electors Over Voters

October 16, 2020

Trump’s plan to subvert the popular vote and steal the Electoral College vote is chilling (Clemsonunivlibrary)

By The Countdown

Read Part I of The Countdown analysis of Trump’s plan to steal the election on November 3.

Read Part II of The Countdown analysis of Trump’s plan to steal the election on November 3.

New Poll: On Election Night, Majority of Republican Voters Will Trust GOP-Controlled Legislatures Over Voters and Even Fox News to Name Electors

There is rising concern that President Donald Trump and swing state Republican-controlled legislatures will attempt to overturn the results of the election by appointing illegitimate Trump electors to the Electoral College. If they do, Congress will be forced to decide between these electors and those certified by the state’s governor.

New polling from Data for Progress and The Justice Collaborative Institute shows Republican-controlled legislatures would have political support among GOP voters to announce their own winner.

70% of likely Republican voters would trust a GOP-controlled state legislature if they were to call the election and send Trump electors to the Electoral College, even if the Secretary of State had already certified that Biden had won the state.

That Majority Support Endures in This Scenario, Even if all the Major News Networks — CNN, Fox News, And MSNBC — Also Declared Former Vice President Biden the Winner

61% of likely Republican voters would also trust the Republican-controlled state legislature’s call to send Trump electors to the Electoral College even if major news networks, including Fox News, and the Democratic Secretary of State of Pennsylvania made the call that Biden had won the presidency.

KEY TAKEAWAY: President Trump has been successful in building distrust in the electoral process among base Republican voters. Trump has repeatedly refused to commit to accepting the results of the election, but to steal the election, he would need the cooperation of Republican-led state legislatures. It’s unlikely that Republican legislatures will act to install a democratically defeated Trump in the White House for a 2nd term without support from their Republican base. This polling suggests that Trump has successfully created that support, likely through his rhetoric undermining the legitimacy of the democratic process.

Pennsylvania is the Key State in Trump’s Plan to Use Republican Legislatures to Appoint Rogue Trump Electors

Pennsylvania is a crucial battleground state, but this year, election experts say Donald Trump likely can’t win without getting Pennsylvania’s 20 Electoral College votes. In 2016, out of 6 million votes cast, Trump won the state by just 44,000 votes. (In a textbook “blue shift,” Trump’s lead narrowed substantially as Clinton won 58% of the votes counted after election night.)

So this year, the Trump campaign and its allies have launched myriad political and legal fights to challenge everything from where ballots can be returned, to how, and whether, they’ll be counted at all. The situation is so tumultuous, the former Pennsylvania communications director for Hillary Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign described Pennsylvania’s election season to The Hill as, “Like learning to ride your bicycle in the middle of a hurricane with a crazy person chasing you.”

Here’s a sampling of what’s happening in Pennsylvania:

DEMOCRATS DOMINATE MAIL-INS -- Democrats have requested 1.69 million mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania, compared to only 633,000 Republicans, a trend that holds across all early ballots cast in the state.
DON’T GET NAKED -- The Trump campaign won a case in the Pennsylvania Supreme Court last month that will ensure “naked ballots” without second envelopes won’t be counted. There are concerns that more than 100,000 of those ballots could be invalidated because they didn’t include a secrecy envelope.
“ELECTORAL CHAOS” -- This is what Philadelphia’s top election official said would be the result if the Republican-controlled legislature didn’t pass legislation allowing these naked ballots to be counted.
NO EARLY PROCESSING -- Pennsylvania is one of four states that don’t allow officials to begin processing mail-in ballots before election day, which will only slow the count and accentuate the blue shift after election night. Legislation has been proposed—but has yet to pass—that would allow early processing, including opening ballots, checking signatures and eligibility, and preparing for scanning, but not actually counting ballots.
“SPECULATIVE” IS ONE WAY TO PUT GOP VOTER FRAUD CLAIMS -- A Trump-appointed judge recently said the campaign and RNC had presented a “chain of theoretical events” and their arguments of potential fraud were “speculative.” As a result, the judge refused to deem ballot drop boxes unconstitutional and also allowed a Pennsylvania policy that ballots shouldn’t be rejected if the signature doesn’t exactly match the one on file to remain.
THE A.G. IS READY FOR THE LAWSUIT TSUNAMI -- The Pennsylvania Attorney General has said Trump’s goal with lawsuits and misinformation is to “sow doubt.” His office has been preparing for an influx of lawsuits on election night, “beginning at 8:01 p.m. when the polls close.”
“INTEGRITY” COMMISSION FAILS TO HAVE ANY -- Pennsylvania Republicans have dropped their push to create a Republican-controlled, so-called “election integrity” commission. The committee would have had subpoena powers to question election and postal service workers while voting is still happening, raising concerns about interfering with ballot counting. The Democratic governor had called the effort an attempt to “steal the election.”
Remember -- Oct. 27 is the deadline to apply for a mail-in ballot in Pennsylvania.