New Civiqs #BlackLivesMatter 50-State Poll Shows Dramatic Movement Nationwide. On Ending Systemic Racism, America Is Leaving Trump Behind.
June 19th 2020
Protesters sit at the intersection of James Street and 4th Avenue in Downtown Seattle, in front of Seattle City Hall, as part of the George Floyd protests. (SounderBruce)
By Markos Moulitsas
Our Civiqs daily tracking poll spanning three years showed America just how successful and powerful the Black Lives Matter protests have been in radically and rapidly shifting public opinion in favor of dramatic changes to the status quo. It’s no surprise, then, that it received front-page treatment at The New York Times as well as coverage in dozens of media outlets including MSNBC, Bloomberg, Washington Post, Politico, and the Late Show with Stephen Colbert. The amazing Rev. Dr. William Barber and Hillary Clinton (among many others) tweeted the chart out.
Now, in our continued effort to better understand American public opinion and its response to critical issues facing our nation, we have expanded that daily tracker to all 50 states.
Some quick observations about the top-line results:
Wyoming is the only state with deep opposition to #BlackLivesMatter at minus-11 net approval (32% support, 43% oppose). (Also, a reminder that Washington, D.C. has more people, yet has two fewer senators.) On the other hand, even in Wyoming public opinion has moved dramatically in the right direction, from 62% opposed three years ago to 43% opposed today.
Arkansas (38-38), Kentucky (38-38), and West Virginia (35-39) are deeply conservative states, yet their opposition to #BLM is marginal. In fact, in the first two states the difference is in the decimal points—effectively tied. If we check in tomorrow, they may very well be in the blue.
That means that the “nays” have it in just two of 50 states. That is a dramatic accomplishment for a movement that had until recently (February of 2018, to be exact) been in net-negative approval territory nationally.
Donald Trump’s new reelection message is “LAW AND ORDER,” staking his presidency on an anti-Black Lives Matter message that is strongly at odds with the country at large, and, in particular, with the states that will decide the election (including brand new swing states Iowa and Ohio):
Arizona (50-29)
Florida (50-28)
Georgia (51-29)
Iowa* (47-31)
Michigan (54-26)
North Carolina (53-27)
Ohio* (49-30)
Pennsylvania (50-26)
Wisconsin (51-28)
This is a great thing morally, obviously. And amazingly it’s also a great thing politically, so there’s no need to water down or compromise the message or tactics. They are working. And while some erosion of support might happen in the near future (we see it with our gun control tracker), the majorities are solid.
Now you want to see something ... not so surprising? Here is the 50-state map, but only including white people.
Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida have evolved a bit, but otherwise, that’s still the map of the Old South, with a smattering of some rural western states.
We know that Donald Trump’s reelection campaign is playing to his base, and nothing says “playing to his base” better than this map. And yet Georgia is the only battleground state in which whites remain plurality opposed to #BLM! Trump doesn’t have great political instincts. He has great racist instincts. And that might’ve worked in 2016, but the ground has shifted from under him and he’s been unable to understand that shift and adapt with it.
So as you might imagine, the map with only self-identified Republicans is a sea of red. But what about the kind of voters Trump needs to reverse his fortunes and eat into presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s current lead? That is, independents?
Not only is that map of independents a 50 for 50-state sweep in favor of net support for the Black Lives Matter movement, but independent support for the movement is particularly strong in those key battleground states: Arizona (+26), Florida (+23), Georgia (+33), Iowa (+16), Michigan (+23), North Carolina (+29), Ohio (+31), Pennsylvania (+21), and Wisconsin (+22).
Meanwhile, on the other big issue of the day—the coronavirus pandemic—public dissatisfaction at Trump’s handling of the crisis remains at an all-time high (36% satisfied, 62% dissatisfied), and that 50-state map is brutal as well:
Trump gets terrible marks on the pandemic, and he’s on the wrong side of mass public opinion on Black Lives Matter. Trump might be the worst president of all time in American history. Luckily, our nation doesn’t need him to shift in the right direction. In fact, America is leaving him far behind.
Posted with permission