As BuzzFlash First Predicted, Forget About Democratic and Republican Conventions This Year, Not Going to Happen. Trump's COVID-19 Obstructionism Made Sure of That.
April 3, 2020
2016 Democratic Convention in Philadelphia. (Andrew Dallos)
MARK KARLIN, EDITOR OF BUZZFLASH
UPDATE: BuzzFlash was the first to predict that there would be no major party conventions this year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Joe Biden will confirm BuzzFlash’s analysis and prediction on Sunday on ABC’s “This Week,” as he suggests that the Democratic Convention will need to be virtual.
It’s been surfacing more frequently the last week in articles about reducing COVID-19 transmission: the role of asymptomatic individuals and pre-symptomatic individuals in spreading the infection. As this further enters the discussion of how to flatten the pandemic curve, it will become clearer that the disease will only be significantly reduced through massive testing of Americans to isolate asymptomatic carriers and trace back their contacts.
Given that such wide scale testing is not likely to occur — for logistic, Trump obstruction and political decision-making and delayed test production reasons — for several months, the summer conventions of the two parties (both now scheduled for August) are not likely to occur as the traditional massive gatherings of thousands of people. That is because no matter how much the curve of infections is being reduced, even if it were to flatten out, there would be a large but unknown number of asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic individuals at any given time, and at the conventions. This would result in untold numbers of convention delegates, media, guests and support staff being infected.
Neither the Democrats nor Republicans are going to want COVID-19 infections from the conventions becoming headline stories.
Although there is still much debate among epidemiological researchers about how infectious individuals with the Coronavirus are who don’t show symptoms, it is now widely accepted that they play a significant role in infection transmission. A March 31 New York Times article cites a study in China that 20-40 percent of virus transmissions occurred before symptoms appeared. The NYT article says the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) are estimating that 25 percent of infected individuals never show symptoms. Another unknown percentage are infected but pre-symptomatic and likely capable of “shedding” or spreading the disease prior to the appearance of medical problems.
An April 2 Washington Post article, noted that,
Studies of the spread in other countries from earlier in the outbreak indicated that about half of the transmissions in Singapore were from asymptomatic people, and as many as 62 percent were in a study of China’s Tianjin province.
With all the focus on sheltering-in-place and social distancing, the factor that asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic COVID-19 carriers play in fueling the epidemic has not been widely discussed as a consideration in how long the economy will be limited to essential services and the vast majority of individuals confined to their homes. The Post article indicates that Dr. Anthony Fauci had recognized the role of asymptomatic transmission as early as January 31.
It is a consideration that will play an important factor in whether the Coronavirus has a long-term trajectory or can be reduced by virtual universal testing that would involve identifying the asymptomatic carriers, isolating them and tracing their contacts. Identifying the asymptomatic carriers would also be essential in hopefully reducing the waves of COVID-19 returning periodically, or minimizing future recurrences.
As of April 3, the US passes 250,000 confirmed COVID-19 infections which means these individuals have tested positive. That’s about one-quarter of the world’s confirmed infections, with testing just ramping up in America. (The US only has 4.25 percent of the world’s population.)
However, given the Trump administration caginess, lies and mystery surrounding how quickly testing will increase significantly, when many hospitals are still rationing testing to people who exhibit three or four of the major symptoms, it is unclear when there will be sufficient testing to identify asymptomatic carriers.
Not only does this create the likelihood that an unknown number of people at the two major party conventions this summer would likely be asymptomatic carriers, it also casts grave doubt on social distancing and shelter-at-home in most states (except for some red state science denial holdouts) ending on April 30.
In regards to thinking about the wisdom of holding large conventions where people are packed together and jostling against each other, consider this account from The New York Times:
There have also been many hints, subtle and not, that the virus can be transmitted via aerosols. Sixty members of a choir in Mount Vernon, Wash., north of Seattle, gathered on March 10 for a practice session for over two and a half hours. None of them felt ill, and they made no contact with one another. But by this weekend, dozens of the members had fallen ill, and two had died….
Several studies have shown now that people infected with the new Coronavirus are most contagious about one to three days before they begin to show symptoms. This pre-symptomatic transmission was not true of the coronaviruses that caused SARS and MERS…
“This is where we got very lucky with SARS, was that it really didn’t transmit until after people were showing symptoms, and that made it much easier to detect it and shut it down with aggressive public health measures,” said Dr. Carl Bergstrom, an expert in emerging infectious diseases at the University of Washington in Seattle.
With the new Coronavirus, here is transmission by healthy-seeming people, and often severe symptoms and a high fatality rate. “That whole combination makes it very, very tough to fight using standard public health measures,” he said.
An April 2 New York Times account of how dosages affect transmission, posted on Yahoo News, particularly points to crowded venues or close range interactions for sustained periods as hot spots for infection to occur:
People should take particular care against high-dose exposures, which are most likely to occur in close in-person interactions — such as coffee meetings, crowded bars and quiet time in a room with Grandma — and from touching our faces after getting substantial amounts of virus on our hands. In-person interactions are more dangerous in enclosed spaces and at short distances, with dose escalating with exposure time. For transient interactions that violate the rule of maintaining six feet between you and others, such as paying a cashier at the grocery store, keep them brief — aim for “within six feet, only six seconds.”
Indeed, the Coronavirus may be more transmissible than previously thought. According to a study by a National Academy of Sciences Committee, as reported to “The White House Corona Task Force’,” “Coronavirus can spread through talking or even just breathing,” CNN reported on April 2.
Consider these factors and the odds of any mass convention gatherings this summer appear remote, particularly given Trump’s obstructionist and lethal handling of the pandemic, valuing the economy over lives. As for the alternatives, that will be up to the Democratic and Republican Parties to decide.
Past BuzzFlash Editor’s Commentaries on the need for widespread testing to identify, isolate and trace asymptomatic carriers of the Coronavirus:
Trump Is Shooting Us on Coronavirus Avenue and Getting Away With It
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