Thomas Klikauer for BuzzFlash: German COVID-Inspired Conspiracy Fanatics
January 21, 2022
By Thomas Klikauer
Financed by Germany’s Volkswagen Foundation, the Think Tank for Political Participation has asked 1,220 Germans between spring 2020 and spring 2021 about their beliefs in Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies, also known as conspiracy theories and conspiracy myths. It found that Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies are predominantly transmitted through the Dubai-based cross-platform messaging service Telegram.
The report also found that the belief in conspiracy fantasies is linked to authoritarian, extremist and right-wing attitudes. Yet, on the upswing, the number of Germans believing Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies has actually declined between spring 2020 and spring 2021 from 14% to just 9%.
This also means that in 2020, 86% of all Germans did not believe in Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies while in spring 2021, the number had increased to 91%. In other words, only a tiny minority of Germans now believe in Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies. The general public in Germany can be divided into four groups:
1. Resisters: this group consists of people who resist being influenced by Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies – this remains the largest group by far;
2. Ex-Believers: ex-believers are those who used to believe in Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies in spring 2020. But by 2021, they no longer believed in these fantasies;
3. Newcomers: this group consists of people who do the opposite: in 2020, they did not believe in Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies but in 2021, they have started to believe in them; and finally,
4. The Hardcore: these people believed in Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies in spring 2020, in spring 2021, and (worse), they continue to believe in Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies.
In terms of numbers, the overwhelming majority (above 80%) of Germans resist conspiracy fantasies about the Coronavirus pandemic; they are not tempted to believe in these fantasies. Those who had left the camp of the conspiracy believers are about 8% while those who have started to believe in conspiracies are a mere 3%. On balance, those who believe in Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies form the minority.
Most crucial is group 4, Germany’s hard-core believers in Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies. Yet, they account for just 6% of all Germans. In other words, the AfD’s claim that recent government policies on the Coronavirus pandemic is dividing Germany is baseless since we are talking about a rather insignificant minority of just 6%.
The highly publicised and rather noisy rallies of Germany’s anti-vaxxers reflect a miniscule hard core of about 6% – potentially 9%, if one adds the group of newcomers (3%). Still, this is a tiny minority operating on the fringe of German politics.
Among Germany’s hard-core people who strongly believe in Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies, 12% fancy the hallucination that the Coronavirus pandemic has destabilised Germany. Meanwhile, 17% think that corporate profits are the real driver behind the Coronavirus pandemic.
Interestingly, the number of Germans who see the pandemic as the work of a dark, secret, and globally super-powerful group that is spreading the virus in order to make profits is significantly larger than the group of people who think the pandemic is just a hoax.
Remarkably, the belief in Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies occurs independent of whether people have been infected by the virus or not. Germans who were directly affected by Covid-19 do not come in lower numbers than those who haven’t experienced the disease. In other words, even when infected with the virus, Germany’s card-core believers remain undeterred.
On the question, who believes in Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies, the study found that those who believe in the conspiracies are younger Germans (note: not older Germans!), they tend to have lower educational achievements, and are in lower-income brackets. In other words, the belief in these conspiracies declines as education increases. 9% of Germans with the lowest educational achievement (Hauptschule) believe in Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies while only 4% with a high school degree (Abitur) do so.
Believers in the conspiracies are more often than not living in the former East-Germany. While only 5% of Germans living in the western parts of Germany believe in these fantasies, the number more than doubles in the former East-Germany (11%).
Worse is the former East-German state of Saxony where a whopping 28% believe in Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies. By comparison, the most conspiracy-affected state in Germany’s western part remains the south-western state of Baden-Württemberg.
But even there, the number of conspiracy believers has declined from 20% to 12% between 2020 and 2021. In addition, the belief in these conspiracies in Baden-Württemberg has been linked to a mixture of Christian fundamentalism and esoteric ex-Hippies. Meanwhile, in the former East-German state of Saxony this group consists of right-wing extremists spiced up with Neo-Nazis.
Whether in the west or in the east, Germans believing in Corona-inspired conspiracies also have political attitudes. Overall, just 4% of those with a politically more progressive attitude believe in these conspiracy fantasies while only 2% come from the center-left spectrum.
The number increases for those who see themselves in Germany’s political center (5%) and the center-right (7%). But it really shoots up when it comes to those who identify as right-wing (19%). In other words, the belief in Corona-inspired conspiracies remains a phenomenon of Germany’s right – not the left.
On the positive side, Germans are generally supporting protective government measures against the Coronavirus pandemic. On the conflicting issue of protecting individual freedom versus protecting public health, the majority (53%) considers the protection of health to be more important than individual freedom. On the other hand, it is not at all surprising to find that Germans who believe that the pandemic is not a serious threat also believe that protecting public health is less important than individual freedom.
This, of course, impacts on the willingness to get vaccinated. Among those who resist believing in Corona-inspired conspiracies (group 1), a whopping 95% said they definitely get vaccinated. Simultaneously, of those in group 4 (hardcore conspiracy believers), 30% say they will definitely not be vaccinated.
In other words, the much-debated mandatory vaccination is supported by a rather strong majority. Yet, 30% of the hard-core conspiracy theorists will definitely not be vaccinated. This means that it will be an enormously difficult task to reach this group, to increase their willingness to be vaccinated, and to convince them to abandon their Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies.
Finally, much of this can be linked to trust in traditional media versus trust in online platforms such as Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, etc. Those who resist believing in Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies trust Germany’s traditional media to 92%. Yet, 33% of Germany’s hard-core conspiracy believers trust online platforms. This is roughly replicated when it comes to trusting science. 94% of resisters trust science while 26% of hard-core believers do not trust it at all.
Not surprisingly, virtually the same emerged when it comes to trust in the government. 93% of those who do not believe in Corona-inspired conspiracies trust Germany’s government. At the same time, 25% of hard-core conspiracy fanatics do not trust the government at all.
Similarly, 94% of group 1 (rejecting conspiracy theories) trust the government’s management of the Coronavirus pandemic whilst 24% of hard-core conspiracy fanatics believe the government’s crisis management has been bad.
Finally, five things can be learned from the study. Firstly, Germany’s hard-core believers in Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies are a tiny minority of 6%, potentially 9%. Secondly, they tend to be young people with less education and lower incomes. They are likely to live in former East-Germany or perhaps in south-western Baden-Württemberg. Thirdly, once locked into the mythical world of Corona-inspired conspiracy fantasies, it is hard to reach them.
Fourthly, there is a clear link between people who believe in these fantasies and a general distrust in traditional media, the government, and science. And finally, online platforms play a crucial role in transmitting Corona-inspired conspiracies. Overall, one might say that German hard-core conspiracy fanatics are a tiny minority. Yet, they also remain dangerous, violent, and even lethal:
· in September 2021, the shooting of a petrol station attendant occurred. The young man had simply asked an anti-vaxxer to wear a mask;
· in November 2021, anti-vaxxers spayed the Nazi-like slogan Impfen Macht Frei – a reminiscence of the cynical Nazi slogan Arbeit Macht Frei (work makes you free) placed on German concentration camps – at a local school in Baden-Württemberg;
· in December 2021, anti-vaxxers held a Nazi-style torch rally in front of the house of a health minister.
While German hard-core Corona-inspired conspiracy fanatics may make up only 6% to 9% of Germany’s population, anti-vaxxers and conspiracy fanatics remain a very acute threat to society. The three very recent examples show how serious this threat is.
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