Vulnerable Senate Republicans Slide Further Underwater With Voters, While Democrats Gain

October 18th 2019

By Joan McCarter

Sens. Doug Jones of Alabama and Gary Peters of Michigan are the two most vulnerable Democrats in Morning Consult's quarterly Senate rankings survey. They've each gained support in the past quarter, with Jones up 3 points and Peters up 1 point. Both are holding their heads above water—with not overwhelming support, but support.

On the other hand, Morning Consult notes, the "most vulnerable Republican senators are not improving their standing in their home states ahead of a tough 2020 election cycle." Iowa's Joni Ernst had the biggest slide, a 9-point drop. Forty-three percent of Iowa voters disapprove of the job she's doing, against 39% approval. This is the first time she's been underwater. Sens. Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Cory Gardner of Colorado each saw 3-point drops in net approval. They, Ernst, and Arizona's Martha McSally all have approval ratings below 40%.

Susan Collins slid down another 2 points, after winning last quarter's prize for the biggest fall from grace. Her approval rating dropped from 45% to 43%, and her disapproval inched up—it was 48% last quarter and is 49% now. This year is the first time Collins has been underwater in Morning Consult's surveys.

Meanwhile, potential Democratic challengers to these senators racked up some impressive fundraising in the past quarter. In Iowa, Theresa Greenfield outraised Ernst by $1.1 million. In Arizona, Mark Kelly outraised McSally by about $2.5 million. In Maine, Sara Gideon brought in $3.2 million this quarter, Collins $2.1 million. John Hickenlooper, who jumped into the Colorado Senate primary on Aug. 22, raised $2.1 million, nearly matching Gardner's haul of $2.45 million in about a third of the time. Former state Sen. Cal Cunningham raised nearly as much as Tillis in the quarter, $1 million to Tillis' $1.2 million.

Any way you look at it, the Senate map is not looking so great for Moscow Mitch and team, particularly as the cavalcade of Trump administration officials deciding to bare their souls to House committees in the impeachment probe grows. It's going to be a long year for everyone, but a very hard year for them in particular.

Posted with permission