When 75% of Americans 65 and Older are Vaccinated in Coming Weeks, COVID Deaths Should Precipitously Drop by 60%
February 12, 2021
Vaccinating Americans over the age of 65 could lead to at least a 60% reduction in deaths and hospitalizations in April. (jeanneg)
MARK KARLIN, EDITOR OF BUZZFLASH
Yes, there is cause for serious concern about the emergence of fast-spreading COVID variants, but, in the media focus on the efficacy of each of the vaccines (two currently being injected in the US and two that will likely both be approved by mid-March, with the one dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine being “in arms” perhaps in 2-3 weeks, with a fifth, AstraZeneca possibly being approved in April) it largely goes unreported that ALL the vaccines prevent death from COVID. Indeed, all the vaccines also eliminate or dramatically reduce hospitalizations.
That brings me to a staggering positive trend in COVID statistics that will result as Americans over 65 and older are currently being vaccinated in what is known as CDC Group 1b. According to most COVID data compilers, Americans over 65 account for an astonishing 80% of COVID deaths. Although, despite vaccination inequity and significant vaccination resistance, let’s optimistically assume that 75% of Americans over 65 are inoculated before the beginning of April, the COVID death rate should then drop by more than 60%. That would change if a monstrously virulent variant were to evolve that increased morbidity, but now the major difference in variants is that they transmit faster in terms of community spread, not that they cause more serious outcomes.
No vaccines ensure that a vaccinated person does not get COVID, but they do prevent the Coronavirus from becoming lethal, and they suppress the severity of infection. In most cases, it also appears they help reduce spread, but that is still under study.
There are also more effective treatments that have been developed and ones that are on the horizon that will prevent hospitalizations and deaths that will be helpful to younger persons and Americans with co-morbidities as they await a sufficient supply of vaccine doses.
45 million Americans have received at least the first dose with 13.6 million having received the second dose of either the Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines as of February 11. In addition to Americans over 65 years of age (including those in long-term care facilities), healthcare workers have been receiving the shots. Essential workers are also included in 1b. This week the CDC suggested to states to include persons with co-morbidities in group 1b as of February 25. Since Americans with co-morbidities also have higher death rates, (a National Center for Health Statistics study found “that 94% of people who had COVID-19 also had other conditions listed”) the death rate and hospitalizations should fall even further as vaccination doses continue to increase (particularly when there are four or five vaccinations).
So after a year of living largely shut-in amidst a pandemic, it appears that the cause for optimism far exceeds the focus on the efficacy of vaccines, meaning that, yes, a lower efficacy rate means you are more likely to contract COVID, but you will not die or be hospitalized by it. Although the science is still not resolved in regards to re-infections, it would appear that asymptomatic infection or mild to less than severe infection increases the number of people who then are part of building up herd immunity.
Which reminds me that with more than 27 million confirmed COVID infections as of today in the US, and the likely asymptomatic numbers far exceeding that, by the end of April, the US may have more than 75 million persons vaccinated or having developed antibodies from asymptomatic or mild infections.
But the big takeaway is that with Americans over 65 making up 15% of the US population but 80% of COVID deaths, current daily COVID deaths should drop by at least 60%, factoring in other vaccinated groups, by April 15, and perhaps a greater reduction due to the vaccination of individuals with co-morbidities under the age of 65.
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