Will a Third Wave of Social and Economic Organization Save Us?

March 6th 2020

Futurist Composition by Joseph Stella (Joseph Stella)

By John Foley

In 1980 the famous futurist Alvin Toffler published his seminal book The Third Wave.  This book not only outlined the coming Information Age, but predicted fundamental change to our nation, society and even our civilization.  Toffler was optimistic about the future, but he forewarned us too. Reading “The Third Wave” today is a revelation of Progressive ideas. It also accurately describes our current difficult times.  We now face unprecedented environmental challenges, a worldwide refugee crisis, and a breakdown in government and society along with a return to authoritarianism.  

Some people think terrorism is a product of a “Clash of Civilizations”, but they are wrong if they think it’s an East versus West clash; it’s a reaction to the Information Age, “The Third Wave”.  Toffler wrote the Information Age would be about positive social change but opposed by groups unable to cope with societal changes brought on by “The Third Wave”. What I’ve coined Third Wave Theory (TWT) recognizes a framework to navigate the chaotic world we are now facing; it gives us a road map to guide us.  Third Wave ideas are Progressive ideas; about ecological responsibility, renewable energy, more democracy, equal rights for women and minorities, and a world where humans manage technology and not the other way around.

According to TWT, the First Wave was the agricultural societies of ancient Greece, Rome, and European feudalism until the end of the Middle Ages.  The Second Wave was the Industrial Age society. The Second Wave began in Western Europe during the 1500s with banks to finance the Age of Discovery, later colonization, the Industrial Revolution, and finally Twentieth Century industrialism. Toffler saw key aspects of Second Wave society:  

"The Second Wave Society is industrial and based on mass production, mass distribution, mass consumption, mass education, mass media, mass recreation, mass entertainment, and weapons of mass destruction. You combine those things with standardization, centralization, concentration, and synchronization, and you wind up with a style of organization we call bureaucracy."

Toffler also predicted Second Wave civilization would not give up without a fight, since the fossil fuel industry props up the Second Wave world.  It’s no coincidence that we see Petro states such as Russia and Saudi Arabia trample on Third Wave ideas of human rights and ecological rights. Even non-State Petro actors like the Koch Brothers use their influence and money to suppress Third Wave ideas, like the “Green New Deal”.  The industrial Petro States are fighting to keep up their dominant role and resist the advent of the Third Wave forces.   

The colliding of Second and Third Waves creates social tensions, dangerous conflicts, and strange new political Wave fronts[ii]. The conflict between Second and Third Wave groupings is the central political tension cutting through our society.  Once we realize that a bitter struggle is now raging between those who seek to keep industrialism and those who seek to supplant it, we have a powerful new key to understanding the world.  

Third Wave ideas have appealed to both the Right and Left wings of American politics.  Newt Gingrich loved Toffler’s ideas such as reducing bureaucracies but ignored Toffler’s warnings about protecting Earth’s fragile biosphere[iii].   Gingrich would later abandon Third Wave ideas in the late 1990s, as the GOP fell under the influence of Nativist conspiracy theorists who saw Toffler as a ‘globalist’ advocating the New World Order[iv]. 

Al Gore was another politician highly influenced by Third Wave ideas.  A constant theme of The Third Wave is the danger to the earth by Second Wave Industrial civilization, and how the Third Wave Information Age must make course corrections before it’s too late.  Gore’s book The Earth in the Balance was influence by Third Wave ideas of saving and protecting Earth’s fragile biosphere.  Yet the Left resented Toffler’s ideas about the important role corporations would play in the Information Age. 

The book The Third Wave also influenced politics worldwide, especial in Asia[v].  In the 1980s, The Third Wave was a bestseller in China, and its other main theme that Democracy as the government of the future, helped motivate and spark the Pro-Democracy activists in Tiananmen Square in 1989[vi]. Today we see this same spirit in the Hong Kong student protesters.

The Third Wave is about creating a new civilization, and ignorant people everywhere are trying to suppress it.  The Third Wave changes ways of working, loving, and living. It creates a new green economy, but also new political conflicts with resurgent nativists.  Many millennials want these new Third Wave ideas. Others, like the baby boomers are terrified of the future and engage in a desperate attempt to restore their dying Second Wave world.

Looking at the current upheavals, we can regard them as isolated events. They are in fact part of a wider phenomenon, the death of industrialism and the rise of a new civilization. The world that is now upon us is a clash of values and technology, new geopolitical relationships, new lifestyles and modes of communication demand new ideas and concepts.

It is scarcely necessary today to elaborate on the real dangers facing us: nuclear war, ecological disaster, fanaticism, and regional violence.  If Toffler’s main argument is correct, there are powerful reasons for long-range optimism, even if the transitional years immediately ahead are stormy and crisis ridden. 

Lieutenant Colonel John Foley is a retired U.S. Army officer and career Intelligence Officer. He served 27 years in the U.S. military service with both the U.S. Marine Corps and U.S. Army. He had multiple combat deployments to Iraq with the 5th Special Forces, 101st Airborne Division and 1st Cavalry Division. His last duty assignment was with NORAD-USNORTHCOM. He currently lives in Colorado.

References:

[i] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clash_of_Civilizations

[ii] The Third Wave p.15

[iii]https://www.gingrich360.com/2017/01/remembering-alvin-toffler/ 

[iv] http://www.enterstageright.com/archive/articles/0701thirdwayp3.htm

[v] https://www.tofflerassociates.com/news/world-renowned-business-futurist-author-and-lecturer-alvin-toffler-dies-at-87/

[vi] https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-asian-studies/article/futurists-of-beijing-alvin-toffler-zhao-ziyang-and-chinas-new-technological-revolution-19791991/9C3A0A2BA1E1FEE714548E47FA351758