In Case You Missed It: Democratic 2020 Convention Most Likely to Be Decided by a Brokered Second Ballot, Meaning Anyone Might Win. This Is Bloomberg's Game Plan.
November 28, 2019
(PBS News Hour)
MARK KARLIN, EDITOR OF BUZZFLASH
BuzzFlash Disclaimer: BuzzFlash is not endorsing or putting its thumb on the scale for any Democratic presidential primary candidate. BuzzFlash believes that preventing the threat of a second Trump presidency is of paramount importance to the restoration of sanity, humaneness and democracy in the White House. In short, BuzzFlash will let the Democratic primary voters make their decision in the primaries, and BuzzFlash will then indefatigably support the nominee: vote blue no matter who in 2020.
With the recent addition of Michael Bloomberg and Deval Patrick, there are now 18 Democratic presidential primary candidates. The large field, which until recently numbered over 20 people, was heralded in by the large number of aspirants in the 2016 Republican primary, which Trump eventually dominated, and by Trump setting a precedent that anyone, even someone without elective office experience, could capture the presidency.
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With Iowa less than three months off, there has been a slight winnowing of candidates, but the strong possibility exists that the primaries may progress with no candidate receiving at least 50% of the 3,836 pledged votes needed to win on the first ballot at the 2020 Milwaukee convention. Yes, some candidates will inevitably drop out after the early primaries, but as long as many of them can raise sufficient donations, it is also possible that a number of candidates may make it to the convention.
Remember that Democratic convention rules stipulate that if no candidate has a majority of votes on the first ballot, pledged delegates are released to vote for the candidate of their personal choice. In addition, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) in 2018 voted a reform measure, based on the Sanders campaign objection to the vast majority of superdelegates (composed primarily of establishment Democratic Party officials) backing Clinton and helping her establish a narrative of inevitability in 2016. As a result, an estimated 765 superdelegates will not be allowed to vote on the first ballot at the Milwaukee convention.
However, and this is a major factor to consider, those approximately 765 appointed delegates will be able to vote on a second ballot. That will raise the 50% threshold required for nomination to a combined total of 2,298 delegates. Incidentally, there is a DNC rule, according to Ballotpedia:
A candidate is typically only eligible to receive a share of the pledged delegates at stake if they win at least 15 percent of votes cast in a primary or caucus. That standard is referred to as the 15 percent threshold. In addition to pledged delegates, there are alternate delegates for each state, Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico, the U.S. territories, and Democrats Abroad.
That rule would currently eliminate everyone but Biden, Warren and Sanders in BuzzFlash’s 45-day trending poll averages. However, Buttigieg is coming up strong, and others may break through the 15% mark.
Which brings us to Michael Bloomberg. Many pundits are discounting Bloomberg’s run as a billionaire’s indulgence. However, whatever one thinks of Bloomberg (a former Republican with a controversial ”stop and frisk” policing policy when he was mayor of New York), he could indeed skip the seminal and impactful Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, as long as he can win 15% of the pledged delegates in other states. He would have to likely reach 15% at the expense of the centrist candidates, including Biden.
What’s more (and, again, we are by no means endorsing or leaning toward Bloomberg, just analyzing his late-stage strategy), Bloomberg, as one of the ten wealthiest persons in the US (with a net worth of more than $52 billion), is pledging to completely finance his own campaign and accept no donations. He has just dropped a $30 million ad buy, which is more than any other Democratic candidate raised in this year’s third quarter.
Furthermore, the Democrats are facing a huge gap in fundraising as compared to Trump, who has raised more than $165 million thus far, not to mention his own money. Bernie Sanders is second in fundraising, having raised nearly $74 million. Warren is third having raised more than $60 million.
In the end, it is possible that the superdelegates, who are Democratic apparatchiks, who are constantly struggling to raise campaign funds, may be lured by the ability of Bloomberg to expend perhaps hundreds of millions of dollars of his own fortune to win the presidency if the nomination determination proceeds to a second ballot. Given the Republican advantage in fundraising and Trump’s alleged billions of dollars, the Democrats are facing a huge financial disadvantage in the 2020 presidential race.
In addition, mainstream corporate media has an affinity for millionaires and billionaires running for office (although they seem to be pretty much ignoring Tom Steyer, but that may be do to his own strategy as a candidate) at the expense of progressives who propose higher taxes on the wealthy. Trump won in 2020, although by the slightest of margins in terms of winning the electoral college, largely by getting virtually unlimited free media coverage. Already Bloomberg has benefited from a windfall of media publicity, including coverage of his ad buy.
As stated above, BuzzFlash is not in anyway endorsing Bloomberg, but considering the plutocratic influence on the media, expect that Bloomberg is going to continue to receive an extraordinary amount of free coverage. It is the apogee of the increasing impact of money in politics to predict the media spectacle of a battle of the billionaires in 2020.
And given the not unlikely scenario, short of a dramatic drop off of Democratic candidates as the primaries progress, that the 2020 Democratic convention will go to a second ballot, it appears that Bloomberg may have a possible route to the nomination as a consensus candidate of the superdelegates, plus the support of delegates who are pledged to the center lane and might be looking for someone who can take on Trump financially.
Of course, it is possible that a current candidate can win on the first ballot, but that appears unlikely with Biden polling just above 30% nationally, and that seems to be his ceiling. There is also the possibility that either Sanders or Warren could drop out and throw his or her support to the remaining candidate of the progressive wing of the party.
Yes, prediction is a challenge in such an uncertain race, but Bloomberg, like him or not, may end up being the beneficiary of a brokered Democratic convention. If the progressive candidates, however, win more than 50% of the primary vote, Bloomberg’s millions may have been for nought. However, even if the progressive wing does capture more than 50% of the pledged delegates, remember that the superdelegates, who are much more likely to be centrist Democrats, could still put Bloomberg over the top on a second ballot.
Then again, another candidate may amass a majority of the combined delegates on a second ballot. There is also the possibility that the convention could could extend to a third ballot if none of them crosses 50% on the second one.
Follow the latest poll trending and access to the Democratic presidential candidates websites by visiting BuzzFlash’s 2020 Democratic Primary section.
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